IT IS GOING TO BE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Whenever the Conservatives start to edge into majority territory, it seems some voters pull back and re-consider their intentions." - EKOS Research Associates President Frank Graves

The first snap shots of the mood of the electorate are rolling out. The wind appears to be in the sails of the Conservatives nationally and the Liberals are going to have to work hard to keep the Conservatives pinned to a minority. It appears that the Quebecois are emerging from the post Meech Lake deep freeze embracing the Conservatives as they did for much of the Mulroney years.

The Strategic Counsel poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV News of 45 so-called battlefield riding's in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia is showing the Conservatives making gains, particularly in parts of Quebec that have been supporting the Bloc Québécois. It is only the first week of the campaign but they seem to be stealing the traditional support of the Bloc . The days of coming up the middle between the federalist vote are over and the Conservatives are being seen as the best option.

A poll by Canadian Press-Harris/Decima in partnership with the CBC shows the Conservatives in the lead nationally with 41 per cent of public support, followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent, and the NDP trailing at 14 per cent.

A poll by EKOS research suggests that the Conservatives may have already peaked as the public seem to pull back at the possibility of handing the Conservatives a majority. It still gives them a big lead over the Liberals but shows they are strengthening their position. The poll found Stephen Harper's Conservatives with 36 per cent of the public's support, the Liberals with 26 per cent and New Democrats with 19. The Conservatives lead is slipping from the start of the campaign last Monday.

Closer to home, a Corporate Research Associates election call indicates that the Conservative support in the province was beginning to dip in the weeks before the election call. The poll was conducted between August 12th and the 28th. It showed the Liberals at 43%, the Conservatives at 35% and the NDP at 20% amongst decided voters. 39% of those polled indicated that they are undecided or do not plan to vote. The Liberals were up 5 points from the last poll in May. The Conservatives were down 3 points over the same period.

The Harris/Decima poll interviewed roughly 300 Canadians every night, as part of a rolling nationwide survey that will continue throughout the election campaign. The sample represents a total of 1,406 interviews gathered between Sept. 8 and 11. The poll's margin of error is 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The EKOS survey, conducted over the same dates, interviewed around 1,000 Canadians each day, for a total of 4,975 randomly selected voters. The margin of error is 1.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

These CRA results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 402 adult residents from Newfoundland and Labrador, conducted from August 12 to August 28, 2008, with results accurate to within +4.9 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.